Key Issues in the 2024 United States Presidential Election
The results of the 2024 United States presidential election will significantly impact American public policy, with consequences around the globe. This collection gathers analysis from faculty members on the outlook for their areas of topical expertise. Through their writings and media engagements, Fletcher's faculty offer a range of academic perspectives on this historic geopolitical moment.
For interview opportunities with Fletcher faculty, please contact Katie Coleman at katie.coleman@tufts.edu.
Technology
By Thomas Cao, Assistant Professor of Technology Policy
Research reveals that many in Silicon Valley support liberal social policies but are resistant to regulation of the tech industry.
This is evident in the public support for Donald Trump from Mark Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, who oppose the Biden administration's approach to AI regulation. The Republican Party vows to “repeal Joe Biden’s dangerous Executive Order that hinders AI Innovation.”
Techno-optimists and government regulators are divided over questions about AI's future. Many techno-optimists take for granted that AI will continue to advance rapidly, predicting breakthroughs like artificial general intelligence (AGI).
Biden administration officials are more cautious. Regulators prioritize present-day and foreseeable challenges, rather than future hypotheticals. This approach is often perceived by Silicon Valley elites as antagonistic to AI’s potential.
On content moderation, both parties share dissatisfaction but differ sharply in desired approach. Republicans believe that current moderation practices disproportionately target conservative voices. Democrats generally favor tightening regulations.
My research shows that liberals’ demands for censorship are driven not only by concerns over falsehood, but also over negative externalities on public beliefs and behaviors. In a recent letter, Mark Zuckerberg acknowledged government pressure on Meta to moderate COVID-related content. The Biden administration responded that "tech companies… should take into account the effects their actions have on the American people."
Both parties are vying to shape the digital landscape to align with their political objectives. While tech policy may not be the top concern for many voters, the upcoming election can have profound implications for the future of technology in the U.S. and worldwide.
Inflation
By Michael Klein, Clayton Professor of International Economic Affairs
Transatlantic Affairs
By Daniel Drezner, Professor of International Politics
On the campaign trail, Trump has promised to cease all aid for Ukraine, withdraw the United States from NATO because allies aren’t meeting spending targets, implement across-the-board tariff increases, deport immigrants and militarize the immigration system, and use military force against drug cartels in Latin America.
Trump’s economic and national security policies could lead to a more multipolar world. They are more likely to lead to a world in which nuclear proliferation accelerates, especially in Asia, the dollar ceases to be the world’s reserve currency, and the United States loses its ability to attract the best of the best from the rest of the world. Eventually, Americans could find themselves on the margins of Pax Europa.
A U.S. reversal on both Ukraine and transatlantic trade could be the impetus for Europe to get its strategic act together. All the states on the continent’s Eastern flank, from Finland to Bulgaria, would be clamoring for stronger security commitments from the rest of the European continent if Trump were to weaken the U.S. commitment.
A strategically autonomous European Union would likely be willing to move on from its reliance on the dollar as the global reserve currency. The geopolitical effects of such a move would be significant.
For more, read Professor Drezner's opinion piece in Politico
Immigration
By Katrina Burgess, Professor of Political Economy
While campaigning in Iowa last September, former President Donald Trump made a promise to voters if he were elected again: “Following the Eisenhower model, we will carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” he said. Trump, who made a similar pledge during his first presidential campaign, has recently repeated this promise at rallies across the country.
If he were to win the presidency again, Trump would have the legal authority to deport undocumented immigrants, but the logistical, political and legal obstacles to doing so quickly and massively are even greater today than they were in the 1950s.
First, most undocumented immigrants now live in cities, where immigrant sweeps are more difficult to carry out. Second, the U.S. undocumented population is much more dispersed and diverse than in the 1950s. Today, Mexicans are no longer in the majority, and nearly half of undocumented immigrants live outside the six major hubs for immigrants. Third, most undocumented immigrants in the U.S. did not sneak across the border. An estimated 42% entered the country legally but overstayed a visa illegally. Another 17% requested and received a short-term legal status that protects them from immediate deportation.
Trump has not supported a way to provide undocumented immigrants with a legal alternative, which means that migrants will keep finding ways to cross illegally.
For more, read Professor Burgess's piece in The Conversation
After Kamala Harris and Donald Trump sparred over semiconductor policy on the presidential debate stage, Professor Chris Miller joined NPR Weekend Edition to discuss. (September 15)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen assesses the ABC presidential debate. (September 12)
An opinion column by George Will, analyzing the candidates' approaches to TikTok, quotes Daniel Drezner's Foreign Policy piece on the overuse of national security designations. (September 11)
Professor Daniel Drezner joined the On the Media radio program to discuss news media coverage of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. (September 6)
Dean Kelly Sims Gallagher spoke to The New York Times about how the U.S. presidential election will impact international climate negotiations. (September 5)
In an article for The Conversation, Professors Marcia Moreno Báez and Rockford Weitz explored Tim Walz's advocacy for geographic information systems (GIS), a mapping technology tool. (September 5)
A column in The Hill co-authored by senior fellow Tara Sonenshine assessed how debates over abortion and IVF may shape the election campaign.
A piece in Financial Times assessing the candidates' approaches to international economic policy featured quotes from Professor Daniel Drezner. (September 4)
Professor Thomas Qitong Cao provided a quote to Financial Times about the uncertainly around Kamala Harris's approach to China. (August 26)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen described the Democratic Party's political unity after their August convention. (August 20)
Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti penned a opinion piece in Foreign Policy analyzing Kamala Harris's work on artificial intelligence issues for the Biden Administration. (August 19)
Professor Daniel Drezner appeared on MSNBC's Morning Joe to discuss the foreign policy challenges facing both candidates. (August 16)
In her opinion column for The Hill, senior fellow Tara Sonenshine described how each candidate has changed their mind on various issues, including TikTok, immigration, and healthcare. (August 15)
Professor Daniel Drezner's essay for the September/October issue of Foreign Affairs magazine argued that too many topics are classified as national security priorities, offering advice for how the next administration can more clearly prioritize. (August 12)
Brazil's most-circulated newspaper quoted Professor Daniel Drezner's assessment of Kamala Harris's foreign policy approach, originally made on the Independent Thinking podcast from Chatham House. (August 12)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen analyzed Donald Trump's August 8th press conference at Mar-a-Lago. (August 9)
Senior fellow Tara Sonenshine penned an editorial in The Baltimore Sun, advocating for the importance of presidential debates. (August 9)
Alumnus Taehee Lee wrote a piece in The Diplomat assessing North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's perspective on the U.S. presidential election. (31 July)
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Senior fellow Tara Sonenshine authored a piece in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Georgia's significance for the 2024 Electoral College vote. (July 30)
In an article on Project 2024, USA Today quoted Professor Daniel Drezner from his Washington Post column on Project 2025 contributor Michael Anton. (July 29)
In a column for The Indian Express, Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti offered seven pieces of political and policy advice for Kamala Harris. (July 26)
Professor Carlos Alvarado Quesada, the former President of Costa Rica, wrote an article on the root causes of the U.S. immigration crisis for Project Syndicate. (July 26)
Politico's China Watcher newsletter quoted Professor Chris Miller in a piece on Donald Trump's approach to Taiwan. (July 25)
A piece in The Guardian on Kamala Harris's climate policy quoted Fletcher senior fellow Gina McCarthy, who served as National Climate Advisor in the Biden White House. (July 23)
Professor Daniel Drezner spoke to Canada's CBC Radio about how a second Trump administration may approach key public policy issues including immigration, abortion, and the civil service. (July 19)
Alumnus Bob Hormats appeared on CNBC's Squawk Box to describe the Chinese perspective on American political divisions. (July 18)
Professor Eileen Babbitt provided insight for a PolitiFact explainer on how the next U.S. president can affect matters of global war and peace. (July 18)
Professor Chris Miller spoke to BBC News Radio's World Business Report about how a future Trump administration may approach Taiwan. (July 17)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen offers his perspective on the direction of the Republican Party. (July 17)
Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti spoke to The Hill about how Elon Musk and other Silicon Valley figures are approaching the election. (July 16)
Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti provided analysis to The Washington Post about online reaction to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. (July 16)
In a piece for Reuters, Fletcher alumnus Timothy Aeppel reported on how Wisconsin's union workers may vote in the election. (July 15)
Professor Barbara Kates-Garnick spoke to NBC News about prospects for the offshore wind industry under a potential future Trump administration. (July 12)
In her opinion column for The Hill, senior fellow Tara Sonenshine described how the election may impact issues raised at NATO's 75th anniversay summit. (July 11)
Faculty affiliate Alvin Camba co-authored a piece for East Asia Forum assessing whether the election outcome may affect the Luzon Economic Corridor, a joint initiative of the Philippines, Japan and the United States. (July 10)
Professor Daniel Drezner wrote an article for Politico Magazine, excerpted above, offering predictions for how a future Trump administration would approach global issues, with a focus on the transatlantic relationship. (July 6)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen discussed the lessons American campaigns can draw from the United Kingdom's July general election. (July 5)
The New Yorker magazine reviewed Professor Sulmaan Khan's book The Struggle for Taiwan, exploring the challenges that the next presidential administration will face in deterring Chinese aggression towards the island. (July 1)
Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti provided commentary to The New York Times about the spread of misleading political videos on social media. (June 21)