A New Trump Administration
The 2024 U.S. presidential election has global implications. As a new administration steps into power, world leaders, allies, and adversaries are closely watching to gauge the impact on foreign policy, trade, security, and diplomacy. On this page, Fletcher faculty and scholars — experts in international affairs and global policy — offer their unique perspectives on what the election results signify for the world. Through their analyses, we explore the early signals and policy shifts that could reshape global dynamics in the first 100 days. Join us as we navigate the implications of these historic developments from an international standpoint.
For interview opportunities with Fletcher faculty, please contact Katie Coleman at katie.coleman@tufts.edu.
Russia Diplomacy
By Mikhail Troitskiy, Visiting Professor
(December 10) Fifty-five years ago, President Richard Nixon instructed his diplomats to convince the Soviet Union that he was a “madman” who might escalate the Vietnam War at any moment. Today, Donald Trump appears to be adopting a similar approach. During the campaign, he signaled that he may apply maximum pressure on Moscow to end its war in Ukraine if Russia resists the kind of compromise his new administration would favor.
As president-elect, Trump and his transition team have a limited window to explore a possible ceasefire without bearing full responsibility for the outcome. Members of his team acknowledge that the outgoing Biden administration’s heightened pressure on Russia aligns with their strategy of strengthening the U.S. negotiating position before Trump takes office. This contrasts sharply with Trump’s first administration, when his advisor Michael Flynn privately urged Moscow not to escalate in response to the Obama administration’s expulsion of Russian diplomats.
Notably, the handover from Biden to Trump is unfolding without overt hostility. This relative harmony may confirm Moscow’s concerns that both administrations are coordinating their tactics, leaving Russia with fewer opportunities to exploit differences in U.S. policy.
In 1969, the Soviet Union never truly believed Nixon’s “madman” act. Today, Russia must decide how far it can push without forfeiting whatever goodwill remains in a Trump-led Washington. Excessive brinkmanship risks eroding support within the Russian ruling class, placing additional stress on the Kremlin and potentially undermining its position as it navigates the Trump era.
Migration
By Katrina Burgess, Professor of Political Economy
(December 9) President-elect Donald Trump is promising to quickly close the U.S. southern border and deport the nearly 12 million immigrants without legal authorization to remain in the country.
As a scholar of migration in the Americas, my research shows that Trump’s approach is unlikely to stop migrants from trying to enter the U.S. but very likely to enrich criminals. In 2023, my research team and I interviewed over 130 migrants in Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico. What we found is that deterrence isn’t working because of shifts in who is migrating and why they are leaving home.
Until 2011, the vast majority of illegal border crossers were Mexicans, mostly young men seeking higher incomes to support their families. Today, more than 60% of the migrants who cross the U.S. border without legal authorization are from places other than Mexico, including Central America, Venezuela, Ecuador and Haiti. Forty percent of them are parents traveling with children.
Many of these migrants are fleeing chronic violence, rampant corruption, natural disasters or economic collapse. For these migrants, it is worth the risk of being kidnapped, dying in the desert or being deported to escape a desperate situation.
While prevention through deterrence has not stopped migrants, it has enriched smugglers, corrupt government officials and other criminals who take advantage of vulnerable migrants on their way to the U.S. border. According to one estimate, smuggling revenues in the Americas grew from $500 million in 2018 to $13 billion in 2022.
For more, read Professor Burgess's piece in The Conversation
Tariffs
By Michael Klein, Clayton Professor of International Economic Affairs
(December 7) President-elect Trump plans to impose across-the-board tariffs, with especially high tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, the top three countries of origin of U.S. imports. Tariffs are like a sales tax that will raise prices for consumers on imports and on domestically-produced goods that compete with those imports – and, unlike a sales tax, the higher prices of domestically-produced goods will not provide any tax revenue.
In a world with international supply chains, tariffs also hurt American companies. For example, steel tariffs raise production costs for companies that produce things like refrigerators, cars, and dishwashers; for every job in America that produces steel there are 80 jobs for which steel is used as an input. Jobs in other sectors will be threatened by retaliatory trade restrictions, as occurred with the retaliatory tariffs imposed on American agricultural products during the first Trump Administration. This retaliation prompted the Administration to provide unprecedented levels of financial support to farmers, so it was a net drain on the government’s finances. Tariffs also reduce efficiency and increase uncertainty which makes it difficult for companies to plan.
For all these reasons, there is a broad consensus among economists that high, across-the-board tariffs are a bad idea.
American Statecraft
By Daniel Drezner, Professor of International Politics
(November 19) Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement will define U.S. foreign policy for the next four years. The United States will speak with one voice on foreign policy, and that voice will be Trump’s.
There are likely to be three significant differences between Trump’s first- and second-term foreign policies. First, Trump will come into office with a more homogeneous national security team than he had in 2017. Second, the state of the world in 2025 is rather different than it was in 2017. And third, foreign actors will have a much better read of Donald Trump.
It will not be surprising if foreign benefactors approach Trump’s coterie of advisers with implicit and explicit promises of lucrative deals after their time in office—as long as they play ball while in power. Combine this with the expected role that billionaires such as Elon Musk will play in Trump 2.0, and one can foresee a dramatic increase in the corruption of U.S. foreign policy.
Trump will navigate world politics with greater confidence this time around. Whether he will have any better luck bending the world to his “America first” brand is another question entirely. What is certain, however, is that the era of American exceptionalism has ended. Under Trump, U.S. foreign policy will cease promoting long-standing American ideals. That, combined with an expected surge of corrupt foreign policy practices, will leave the United States looking like a garden-variety great power.
For more, read Professor Drezner's essay in Foreign Affairs
The Wall Street Journal quotes Professor Daniel Drezner in a piece about Russia's failure in Syria and how it may affect negotiations with the U.S. over Ukraine. (December 13)
Professor Chris Miller appears on the Bloomberg Businessweek podcast to discuss the future of semiconductor policy under President Trump. (December 13)
Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti speaks to The New York Times about the criminal charges against Indian conglomerate Adani Group, which had pledged to invest $10 billion in the U.S. after Trump's election. (December 12)
In an article for The Free Press, alumnus Elliot Ackerman examines the record and rhetoric of Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense. (December 12)
A piece in Portland Press Herald on Trump's energy policy references comments from Professor Barbara Kates-Garnick. (December 11)
Professor Chris Miller speaks to Financial Times about whether the Biden-era domestic chipmaking boom will continue under Trump's presidency. (December 10)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen examines the fall of Bashar al-Assad and proposes new U.S. policies for Syria. (December 9)
Professor Katrina Burgess authors a piece in The Conversation on how Trump's policy plans will - and will not - affect migration patterns. (December 10)
In a guest opinion essay for The New York Times, Professor Daniel Drezner explores the career and worldview of U.S. Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio. (December 8)
Professor Chris Miller speaks to MIT Technology Review about the next phase for policy in US-China semiconductor competition. (December 6)
In a piece for The Atlantic, alumnus Elliot Ackerman proposes changes that Trump could make to the Department of Defense. (December 5)
Professor Michael Klein speaks to The Boston Globe about how political interest groups can shape Trump's tariff policies. (December 2)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen assesses the state of the Republican and Democratic parties. (December 2)
Professor Katrina Burgess appears on Washington Journal to analyze the history of U.S. deportation policies, ahead of Trump's plans to escalate deportations. (December 1)
Professor Chris Miller joins Squawk Box to discuss how the next Trump administration will approach the Biden-era CHIPS Act. (November 26)
A piece in The New Republic on Donald Trump's leadership style references analysis from Professor Daniel Drezner. (November 26)
PhD candidate Zviad Adzinbaia advocates a change in U.S. policy towards the Republic of Georgia in a piece for Atlantic Council. (November 26)
In a piece for Foreign Policy, Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti explores how Trump's election victory has affected the information landscape. (November 25)
Professor Chris Miller speaks to Yahoo Finance about the first Trump administration's semiconductor policies and how they may preview his second term. (November 25)
PhD student Viking Boham co-authors a piece for The Wire China about the economic tools available for Trump to target China and other rivals. (November 24)
In a piece for The National Interest, visiting professor Mikhail Troitskiy assesses Russia's negotiating posture amid Trump's calls for a Ukraine war settlement. (November 24)
Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti speaks to The Washington Post about the rise of social media platform Bluesky in the wake of the 2024 presidential election. (November 23)
Professor Carsten Kowalczyk speaks to The Cut about how Trump's trade policies may affect consumer prices. (November 21)
Fletcher alumnus Michael Kugelman joins Bloomberg Insight to discuss how U.S. criminal charges against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani may affect relations between Trump and Narenda Modi. (November 21)
Professor Chris Miller appears on Squawk Box Asia to address how Trump's next administration will approach semiconductor policy. (November 21)
Fletcher alumnus Peter Rough hosts a Hudson Institute panel on the Trump administration's national security plans, featuring the CTO of Palantir, a former Republican congressman, and a former Trump defense official. (November 21)
Professor Daniel Drezner speaks to The Boston Globe about the corporate leaders influencing Trump's transition, (November 20)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen explores how Trump's immigration plans may affect the economy. (November 20)
Fletcher alumna Evelyn Farkas speaks to CNN about the next Trump administration's leverage ahead of future talks with Vladimir Putin. (November 19)
As Trump advisors call to strategically decouple from Europe, Fletcher alumnus Brent Hardt advocates for maintaining the Atlantic alliance in a piece for The German Marshall Fund of the United States. (November 19)
Senior fellow Gina McCarthy, who served as National Climate Advisor in the Biden White House, tells USA Today how states may craft climate policy in response to changes at the federal level. (November 18)
Voice of America interviews visiting scholar Pavel Luzin about developments in the Ukraine war occurring during the presidential transition period. (November 18)
Professor Tom Dannenbaum pens a piece in Just Security assessing how the Trump administration may approach ICC warrants against Israeli officials. (November 18)
In a Boston Globe opinion piece, Fletcher student Jay Rumas responds to Trump's promise to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS), advocating for Massachusetts to protect refugees. (November 14)
Professor Chris Miller speaks at the Future Economic Forum in Seoul, South Korea, hosted by Yonhap News Agency, where he commented on the Trump administration's likely technology policies. (November 14)
Professor Gautam Mukunda analyzes the proposed Department of Government Efficiency in a video interview with Yahoo Finance. (November 14)
Professor Alex de Waal authors an article for BBC Africa on the opportunities and challenges that Trump's reelection presents for the African continent. (November 13)
A piece in The New York Times on Trump's foreign policy appointments references analysis from Professor Daniel Drezner. (November 12)
Professor Daniel Drezner authors an essay for Foreign Affairs on how Trump's reelection will redefine American power. (November 12)
Taiwan's Central News Agency runs a story on how incoming EU Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas may approach Trump and China, mentioning her affection for a book by Fletcher Professor Sulmaan Khan. (November 12)
Dean Kelly Sims Gallagher tells The Boston Globe that other countries feel frustration with U.S. inconsistency in climate negotiations. (November 11)
A Financial Times column on the election's lessons for trade policy cites analysis from Fletcher senior fellow Michael A. Cohen. (November 11)
Professor Barbara Kates-Garnick speaks to The New Bedford Light about how the incoming Trump administration may approach green energy incentives. (November 10)
Professor Daniel Drezner joins the Foreign Affairs podcast for a conversation on Trump's second term foreign policy agenda. (November 8)
Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti speaks to Deutsche Welle about Elon Musk's role and agenda in the presidential election. (November 8)
Together with fellow journalists at Reuters, Fletcher alumnus Timothy Aeppel examines the questions facing Democrats in the aftermath of their election loss. (November 7)
In a second post-election piece for Reuters, Fletcher alumnus Timothy Aeppel reports on reactions from Black American voters. (November 7)
Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti analyzes the election results in a video for The Indian Express. (November 6)