A New Trump Administration
The 2024 U.S. presidential election has global implications. As a new administration steps into power, world leaders, allies, and adversaries are closely watching to gauge the impact on foreign policy, trade, security, and diplomacy. On this page, Fletcher faculty and scholars — experts in international affairs and global policy — offer their unique perspectives on what the election results signify for the world. Through their analyses, we explore the early signals and policy shifts that could reshape global dynamics in the first 100 days. Join us as we navigate the implications of these historic developments from an international standpoint.
For interview opportunities with Fletcher faculty, please contact Katie Coleman at katie.coleman@tufts.edu.
Climate & Energy
By Kate Chi, Junior Research Fellow at the Climate Policy Lab
(January 9) A second Trump administration and the Republican House majority signal a reshaping of U.S. energy policies towards greater emphasis on American energy independence and further embrace of fossil fuel exploitation. During Trump’s first term, the U.S. formally exited from the Paris Climate Accord and rolled back more than 100 environmental rules governing clean air, water, wildlife, and chemical standards. Trump has promised to cut energy and electricity prices in half by boosting domestic oil and gas production. This may stall the transition to low-carbon energy, with other potential disruptive moves being floated, such as cancelling tax credits for electric vehicle purchases and the opposition against windmills.
Presently, the U.S. is the largest crude oil producer in the world. The Trump administration will likely champion the interests of fossil fuel energy producers, potentially revoking Biden’s offshore oil and gas drilling ban. Diversions from clean energy investments outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, or from Biden’s recently announced target to lower greenhouse gas emissions by at least 61 percent below 2005 levels by 2035, may further derail necessary climate actions. As this past year saw the highest global average temperature in August in Earth’s 175-year recorded history and record-high global carbon emissions from fossil fuels, the U.S. commitments to a low carbon path are more exigent than ever.
Syria
By Tamirace Fakhoury, Associate Professor of International Politics and Conflict
(January 4) With the toppling of the Bashar al-Assad regime, the United States must reposition its policies towards Syria. The Trump administration will need to address three critical policy areas in the immediate term: political engagement, sanctions, and reconstruction.
Since Syria’s lethal conflict broke out in 2011, U.S. foreign policy has oscillated between half-hearted engagement and reluctance to engage. The U.S. must now adopt a more decisive stance towards Syria’s political transition. Analysts have urged the U.S. and other Western powers to learn from past experiences in Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
The U.S. imposed various sanctions on the Assad regime, notably the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019. This act aimed to isolate the Syrian regime and its allies militarily and economically. Linked to this is the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023. With the regime’s fall, there is a general call from international and regional actors to lift sanctions against Syria. The U.S. is cautiously observing events, deeming discussions about sanctions relief to be premature. However, the U.S. should coordinate with its transatlantic allies on the timing for lifting sanctions and commitments needed from Syria’s new leaders.
Lastly, the administration must consider Syria’s reconstruction and recovery. Trump should act together with allies and the United Nations to support a Syrian-owned transition, align aid with the humanitarian-development-peace nexus (HDP), and encourage inclusive social and economic dialogues. These are preliminary but essential steps for the U.S. to play a benevolent role in a turbulent Middle East.
Maritime Security
By Rockford Weitz, Professor of the Practice in Maritime Studies
(December 27) Maritime security policies will change after the transition from Biden to Trump, particularly on U.S. sanctions against Iran and U.S. military force posture in strategic chokepoints such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
In February 2021, the Biden administration de-listed the Houthis in Yemen as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) entity and as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO). In response to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping that started in October 2023, the Biden administration put the Houthis back on the SDGT list in January 2024, but not the FTO list, which would have triggered sanctions against their backer Iran. Yet the Houthis continued to attack commercial shipping in the Red Sea through 2024.
We can expect the Trump administration to redesignate the Houthis as a FTO shortly after taking office. This will rachet up sanctions against the Houthis and their backer Iran. Trump will also likely use U.S. naval and air power to strike the Houthis within Yemen to deter them from further attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Trump may try to get Saudi Arabia and the UAE to help secure shipping in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz, including by removing Biden administration restrictions on arms sales to both countries.
East Asia
By Aram Hur, Assistant Professor of Political Science
(December 18) Trump’s Asia policy boils down to two things: hawkish against China and a “prove your worth” stance. Trump threatens massive tariffs on products coming from China. He also wants to withdraw American troops from South Korea unless it pays more—a leftover agenda from his first term—and is unlikely to promise anything to Taiwan unless it does the same.
In stark contrast to Biden’s approach of building a democratic alliance against China, Trump will bring a tit-for-tat pragmatism. His hawkishness against China will not imply support for Taiwan in the event of cross-strait conflict. South Korea’s status as a long-time, democratic U.S. ally won’t buy any grace period for withdrawing American troops, even as the country stands vulnerable from the leadership vacuum left after president Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment following a brief martial law decree. North Korea’s mutual defense treaty with Russia will likely bring Kim Jong-un back into the fold of strongman leaders Trump praises, including Putin. Japan’s special relationship with the U.S. will go from assumed to conditional, depending on where it stands in Trump’s economic war against China, which carries collateral for Japan’s economy.
The result is a more atomized and internally competitive East Asia vying for U.S. support. This might achieve Trump’s “America First” vision during his term, but at the long-term cost of destabilizing a region that is critical to U.S. legitimacy. Sticks rarely buy respect, which is the currency America needs most.
Russia Diplomacy
By Mikhail Troitskiy, Visiting Professor
(December 10) Fifty-five years ago, President Richard Nixon instructed his diplomats to convince the Soviet Union that he was a “madman” who might escalate the Vietnam War at any moment. Today, Donald Trump appears to be adopting a similar approach. During the campaign, he signaled that he may apply maximum pressure on Moscow to end its war in Ukraine if Russia resists the kind of compromise his new administration would favor.
As president-elect, Trump and his transition team have a limited window to explore a possible ceasefire without bearing full responsibility for the outcome. Members of his team acknowledge that the outgoing Biden administration’s heightened pressure on Russia aligns with their strategy of strengthening the U.S. negotiating position before Trump takes office. This contrasts sharply with Trump’s first administration, when his advisor Michael Flynn privately urged Moscow not to escalate in response to the Obama administration’s expulsion of Russian diplomats.
Notably, the handover from Biden to Trump is unfolding without overt hostility. This relative harmony may confirm Moscow’s concerns that both administrations are coordinating their tactics, leaving Russia with fewer opportunities to exploit differences in U.S. policy.
In 1969, the Soviet Union never truly believed Nixon’s “madman” act. Today, Russia must decide how far it can push without forfeiting whatever goodwill remains in a Trump-led Washington. Excessive brinkmanship risks eroding support within the Russian ruling class, placing additional stress on the Kremlin and potentially undermining its position as it navigates the Trump era.
Migration
By Katrina Burgess, Professor of Political Economy
(December 9) President-elect Donald Trump is promising to quickly close the U.S. southern border and deport the nearly 12 million immigrants without legal authorization to remain in the country.
As a scholar of migration in the Americas, my research shows that Trump’s approach is unlikely to stop migrants from trying to enter the U.S. but very likely to enrich criminals. In 2023, my research team and I interviewed over 130 migrants in Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico. What we found is that deterrence isn’t working because of shifts in who is migrating and why they are leaving home.
Until 2011, the vast majority of illegal border crossers were Mexicans, mostly young men seeking higher incomes to support their families. Today, more than 60% of the migrants who cross the U.S. border without legal authorization are from places other than Mexico, including Central America, Venezuela, Ecuador and Haiti. Forty percent of them are parents traveling with children.
Many of these migrants are fleeing chronic violence, rampant corruption, natural disasters or economic collapse. For these migrants, it is worth the risk of being kidnapped, dying in the desert or being deported to escape a desperate situation.
While prevention through deterrence has not stopped migrants, it has enriched smugglers, corrupt government officials and other criminals who take advantage of vulnerable migrants on their way to the U.S. border. According to one estimate, smuggling revenues in the Americas grew from $500 million in 2018 to $13 billion in 2022.
For more, read Professor Burgess's piece in The Conversation
Tariffs
By Michael Klein, Clayton Professor of International Economic Affairs
(December 7) President-elect Trump plans to impose across-the-board tariffs, with especially high tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, the top three countries of origin of U.S. imports. Tariffs are like a sales tax that will raise prices for consumers on imports and on domestically-produced goods that compete with those imports – and, unlike a sales tax, the higher prices of domestically-produced goods will not provide any tax revenue.
In a world with international supply chains, tariffs also hurt American companies. For example, steel tariffs raise production costs for companies that produce things like refrigerators, cars, and dishwashers; for every job in America that produces steel there are 80 jobs for which steel is used as an input. Jobs in other sectors will be threatened by retaliatory trade restrictions, as occurred with the retaliatory tariffs imposed on American agricultural products during the first Trump Administration. This retaliation prompted the Administration to provide unprecedented levels of financial support to farmers, so it was a net drain on the government’s finances. Tariffs also reduce efficiency and increase uncertainty which makes it difficult for companies to plan.
For all these reasons, there is a broad consensus among economists that high, across-the-board tariffs are a bad idea.
American Statecraft
By Daniel Drezner, Professor of International Politics
(November 19) Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement will define U.S. foreign policy for the next four years. The United States will speak with one voice on foreign policy, and that voice will be Trump’s.
There are likely to be three significant differences between Trump’s first- and second-term foreign policies. First, Trump will come into office with a more homogeneous national security team than he had in 2017. Second, the state of the world in 2025 is rather different than it was in 2017. And third, foreign actors will have a much better read of Donald Trump.
It will not be surprising if foreign benefactors approach Trump’s coterie of advisers with implicit and explicit promises of lucrative deals after their time in office—as long as they play ball while in power. Combine this with the expected role that billionaires such as Elon Musk will play in Trump 2.0, and one can foresee a dramatic increase in the corruption of U.S. foreign policy.
Trump will navigate world politics with greater confidence this time around. Whether he will have any better luck bending the world to his “America first” brand is another question entirely. What is certain, however, is that the era of American exceptionalism has ended. Under Trump, U.S. foreign policy will cease promoting long-standing American ideals. That, combined with an expected surge of corrupt foreign policy practices, will leave the United States looking like a garden-variety great power.
For more, read Professor Drezner's essay in Foreign Affairs
In a piece for Foreign Policy, Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti analyzes policy changes announced by Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg in the wake of Trump's election victory. (January 15)
With Pentagon nominee Pete Hegseth's statements on women in combat under scrutiny, Professor Abigail Linnington speaks to The World about the role of women in the U.S. military. (January 14)
Professor Daniel Drezner speaks to The Wall Street Journal about Trump's negotiation tactics towards Denmark over Greenland. (January 14)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen explores how Afghanistan will shape Biden's legacy. (January 14)
Alumnus Nayan Seth writes an piece, featuring comments from Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti, about the Biden administration decision to restrict India's access to AI chips. (January 14)
Academic Dean Monica Duffy Toft pens an explainer article in The Conversation on the role of the U.S. Secretary of State, ahead of confirmation hearings for Trump nominee Marco Rubio. (January 13)
Visiting Professor Mikhail Troitskiy authors a piece for 19FortyFive about the prospects for Russia-Ukraine peace negotiation as Trump enters the White House. (January 13)
In a column for The Indian Express, Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti explores the debate within the MAGA movement over H-1B visas. (January 13)
Yahoo Finance interviews Professor Chris Miller about the Biden administration's restrictions on AI chips and how they affect American chipmaker Nvidia. (January 13)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen criticizes how Trump and other political figures have responded to the Calfornia wildfires. (January 13)
Professor Chris Miller speaks to Taiwan's CommonWealth magazine about how Trump will reshape the U.S.-China chip war. (January 13)
NPR interviews Professor Daniel Drezner to explore how the "madman strategy" explains Trump's rhetoric towards Canada, Greenland, and Panama. (January 11)
An article for The Edge Malaysia covers Professor Chris Miller's presentation in Kuala Lumpur on Malaysia's role in the U.S.-China chip wars. (January 9)
A Vox piece on Trump and the "madman theory" cites Professor Daniel Drezner's article for Foreign Policy. (January 9)
Professor Daniel Drezner authors an article for Foreign Policy on Donald Trump's use of the "madman" strategy associated with Richard Nixon. (January 7)
Alumnus David W. Wise writes a piece for RealClear History exploring the historical legacy of the January 6th Capitol attack. (January 6)
A Bloomberg piece describes Wall Street's retreat away from sustainability pledges, citing analysis from Professor Ken Pucker. (January 5)
Professor Aram Hur co-authors an article for The Hill on the lessons for American democracy from South Korea's political crisis. (January 3)
Alumnus Shashi Tharoor authors a piece for Project Syndicate on the dispute among Trump supporters about immigration from India. (January 2)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen examines Joe Biden's complex legacy. (December 31)
A Reuters report on hunger in Gaza and the U.S. policy response includes quotes from Professors Tom Dannenbaum and Alex de Waal. (December 30)
Marketplace interviews Professor Chris Miller about an investigation into Chinese trade practices, announced by the Biden administration during the transition. (December 23)
Fletcher alumna Nahid Bhadelia speaks to The Boston Globe about the policy changes that scientific researchers anticipate from Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (December 23)
A letter from Fletcher alumnus Huang Wei-ping, published in Taipei Times, describes how the U.S. and Taiwan can cooperate on security issues in Trump's second term. (December 21)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen explores how a government shut down will affect public services. (December 20)
A Slate piece on Biden and Trump's approaches to global democracy and autocracy quotes analysis from Professor Daniel Drezner (December 20)
Axios interviews Professor Chris Miller about a dramatic executive order on AI chips being planned the Biden administration. (December 18)
Reuters journalist Timothy Aeppel, a Fletcher alumnus, explores how the toymaking industry is responding to Trump's tariff threats. (December 18)
Professor Chris Miller speaks to Yahoo Finance about Trump's plans for the chip sector. (December 16)
Professor Aram Hur speaks to The Wall Street Journal about the roots of South Korea's political crisis and how they resembles the fractious domestic divides in the United States. (December 14)
The Wall Street Journal quotes Professor Daniel Drezner in a piece about Russia's failure in Syria and how it may affect negotiations with the U.S. over Ukraine. (December 13)
Professor Chris Miller appears on the Bloomberg Businessweek podcast to discuss the future of semiconductor policy under President Trump. (December 13)
Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti speaks to The New York Times about the criminal charges against Indian conglomerate Adani Group, which had pledged to invest $10 billion in the U.S. after Trump's election. (December 12)
In an article for The Free Press, alumnus Elliot Ackerman examines the record and rhetoric of Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense. (December 12)
A piece in Portland Press Herald on Trump's energy policy references comments from Professor Barbara Kates-Garnick. (December 11)
Professor Chris Miller speaks to Financial Times about whether the Biden-era domestic chipmaking boom will continue under Trump's presidency. (December 10)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen examines the fall of Bashar al-Assad and proposes new U.S. policies for Syria. (December 9)
Professor Katrina Burgess authors a piece in The Conversation on how Trump's policy plans will - and will not - affect migration patterns. (December 10)
In a guest opinion essay for The New York Times, Professor Daniel Drezner explores the career and worldview of U.S. Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio. (December 8)
Professor Chris Miller speaks to MIT Technology Review about the next phase for policy in US-China semiconductor competition. (December 6)
In a piece for The Atlantic, alumnus Elliot Ackerman proposes changes that Trump could make to the Department of Defense. (December 5)
Professor Aram Hur provides comments to The Washington Post about the political crisis in South Korea and how it may affect U.S. ties. (December 4)
Professor Michael Klein speaks to The Boston Globe about how political interest groups can shape Trump's tariff policies. (December 2)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen assesses the state of the Republican and Democratic parties. (December 2)
Professor Katrina Burgess appears on Washington Journal to analyze the history of U.S. deportation policies, ahead of Trump's plans to escalate deportations. (December 1)
Professor Chris Miller joins Squawk Box to discuss how the next Trump administration will approach the Biden-era CHIPS Act. (November 26)
A piece in The New Republic on Donald Trump's leadership style references analysis from Professor Daniel Drezner. (November 26)
PhD candidate Zviad Adzinbaia advocates a change in U.S. policy towards the Republic of Georgia in a piece for Atlantic Council. (November 26)
In a piece for Foreign Policy, Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti explores how Trump's election victory has affected the information landscape. (November 25)
Professor Chris Miller speaks to Yahoo Finance about the first Trump administration's semiconductor policies and how they may preview his second term. (November 25)
PhD student Viking Boham co-authors a piece for The Wire China about the economic tools available for Trump to target China and other rivals. (November 24)
In a piece for The National Interest, visiting professor Mikhail Troitskiy assesses Russia's negotiating posture amid Trump's calls for a Ukraine war settlement. (November 24)
Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti speaks to The Washington Post about the rise of social media platform Bluesky in the wake of the 2024 presidential election. (November 23)
Professor Carsten Kowalczyk speaks to The Cut about how Trump's trade policies may affect consumer prices. (November 21)
Fletcher alumnus Michael Kugelman joins Bloomberg Insight to discuss how U.S. criminal charges against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani may affect relations between Trump and Narenda Modi. (November 21)
Professor Chris Miller appears on Squawk Box Asia to address how Trump's next administration will approach semiconductor policy. (November 21)
Fletcher alumnus Peter Rough hosts a Hudson Institute panel on the Trump administration's national security plans, featuring the CTO of Palantir, a former Republican congressman, and a former Trump defense official. (November 21)
Professor Daniel Drezner speaks to The Boston Globe about the corporate leaders influencing Trump's transition, (November 20)
In his regular opinion column for MSNBC, senior fellow Michael A. Cohen explores how Trump's immigration plans may affect the economy. (November 20)
Fletcher alumna Evelyn Farkas speaks to CNN about the next Trump administration's leverage ahead of future talks with Vladimir Putin. (November 19)
As Trump advisors call to strategically decouple from Europe, Fletcher alumnus Brent Hardt advocates for maintaining the Atlantic alliance in a piece for The German Marshall Fund of the United States. (November 19)
Senior fellow Gina McCarthy, who served as National Climate Advisor in the Biden White House, tells USA Today how states may craft climate policy in response to changes at the federal level. (November 18)
Voice of America interviews visiting scholar Pavel Luzin about developments in the Ukraine war occurring during the presidential transition period. (November 18)
Professor Tom Dannenbaum pens a piece in Just Security assessing how the Trump administration may approach ICC warrants against Israeli officials. (November 18)
In a Boston Globe opinion piece, Fletcher student Jay Rumas responds to Trump's promise to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS), advocating for Massachusetts to protect refugees. (November 14)
Professor Chris Miller speaks at the Future Economic Forum in Seoul, South Korea, hosted by Yonhap News Agency, where he commented on the Trump administration's likely technology policies. (November 14)
Professor Gautam Mukunda analyzes the proposed Department of Government Efficiency in a video interview with Yahoo Finance. (November 14)
Professor Alex de Waal authors an article for BBC Africa on the opportunities and challenges that Trump's reelection presents for the African continent. (November 13)
A piece in The New York Times on Trump's foreign policy appointments references analysis from Professor Daniel Drezner. (November 12)
Professor Daniel Drezner authors an essay for Foreign Affairs on how Trump's reelection will redefine American power. (November 12)
Taiwan's Central News Agency runs a story on how incoming EU Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas may approach Trump and China, mentioning her affection for a book by Fletcher Professor Sulmaan Khan. (November 12)
Dean Kelly Sims Gallagher tells The Boston Globe that other countries feel frustration with U.S. inconsistency in climate negotiations. (November 11)
A Financial Times column on the election's lessons for trade policy cites analysis from Fletcher senior fellow Michael A. Cohen. (November 11)
Professor Barbara Kates-Garnick speaks to The New Bedford Light about how the incoming Trump administration may approach green energy incentives. (November 10)
Professor Daniel Drezner joins the Foreign Affairs podcast for a conversation on Trump's second term foreign policy agenda. (November 8)
Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti speaks to Deutsche Welle about Elon Musk's role and agenda in the presidential election. (November 8)
Together with fellow journalists at Reuters, Fletcher alumnus Timothy Aeppel examines the questions facing Democrats in the aftermath of their election loss. (November 7)
In a second post-election piece for Reuters, Fletcher alumnus Timothy Aeppel reports on reactions from Black American voters. (November 7)
Dean of Global Business Bhaskar Chakravorti analyzes the election results in a video for The Indian Express. (November 6)