Insights on COP30

The 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) kicked off this week in Belem, Brazil. Designated an “implementation COP,” COP30 will be more focused on turning the goals from previous COPs into concrete, measurable actions.  

Reflecting upon what can be expected from this year’s conference, Bethany Tietjen, F20, FG26, a predoctoral research fellow at The Fletcher School’s Climate Policy Lab, is anticipating the conclusion of the two-year UAE-Belém work program on indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). Under this program, a team of experts has compiled 100 indicators to measure adaptation outcomes.

“As somebody who studies climate adaptation, I think a lot of people really struggle to grasp what adaptation is working and what is still needed,” Tietjen said, “Unlike climate mitigation, which can be tracked in emissions reductions, adaptation has no single metric for measuring success. Having these clear indicators is something that I'm hopeful for.”

This year, much of the focus has been on updating Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Tietjen noted in a piece for Fletcher, however, that National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) are also due this year. At COP30, parties will review progress on their countries’ NAPs, which cover climate risks, adaptation priorities and finance needs. 

Climate Adaptation—Policy and Politics

Tietjen is intimately familiar with climate adaptation policies. Her dissertation examines the landscape of adaptation policies across different scales of government.

Recently, Tietjen has been focused on a comparative study of adaptation policies between Australia and the United States. She chose Australia because they have a similar system of federal government to the U.S., but their approach to climate adaptation is significantly different. As part of this research, she conducted interviews with climate experts in Australia to learn about their current adaptation efforts.

“In Australia, the responsibility for climate adaptation primarily falls on state governments,” she said. “It’s been interesting to explore how that plays out in Australia, especially given the current political context in the U.S., where there’s this federal drive to abdicate responsibility to the states on issues like adaptation or disaster preparedness.”

Tietjen also recently finished another paper focused on federal climate adaptation policy in the U.S. She conducted interviews with 30 climate experts to learn where the gaps and barriers are to developing a cohesive adaptation policy. 

For both of these papers, Tietjen said it was impossible to keep politics separate from policy given what she described as the “yo-yo effect” between administrations: a constant switching between policy-based approaches and the revoking of those same policies.

Tietjen cited the Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS) as an example. This policy, which was introduced by President Obama in 2015, required federal projects to be built to a certain standard to account for future flood risk. To Tietjen, FFRMS seemed straightforward and beneficial. This policy, however, was revoked by the first Trump administration, reinstated by Biden, and then revoked by Trump again.

“This kind of adaptation planning requires a lot of long-term thinking and a lot of forward-looking assessment of future climate risks,” Tietjen said. “The political dynamics, especially within the executive order space, prevent that kind of planning from happening.”

One program Tietjen is closely watching at this year’s COP is the announcement of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF). The TFFF plans to reward tropical forest countries with a fixed amount per hectare of conserved or restored forest. This program will potentially provide predictable funding for up to 70 countries. TFFF notes that 20% of payments will be made directly to indigenous peoples and local communities.

“It's a level of financial commitment that could make a real difference in terms of allowing communities to keep their tropical forests in place instead of feeling like there's a stronger economic argument for cutting down the forests for other activities like farming,” Tietjen said. “I hope that it's a new model for funding that will have a positive impact on both biodiversity and carbon sequestration while also centering local and indigenous stewardship.”

Practical Research for Global Change 

Tietjen obtained her Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy (MALD) and is completing her doctoral degree at Fletcher. She said what she appreciates most about Fletcher is the emphasis on practicality. Doctoral students, master’s students and researchers at institutes like the Climate Policy Lab (CPL) are driven to produce tangible results, like valuable data, resources and trainings.

In September, for example, CPL held its fourth annual Climate Policy Academy, bringing together researchers and practitioners from eight countries to exchange insights from their work and engage with CPL faculty and fellows.

“It really does allow for this mutual learning to happen,” Tietjen said, “and I love that Fletcher encourages that.”

Tietjen said it can be easy to get pessimistic about conferences like COP. She cited the slow pace of negotiations, the lack of ambition in the goals set, and the development required just to host an event of this magnitude, as well as the U.S.’s decision to pull out of the COP this year. 

At the CPL Symposium, Tietjen moderated a panel of three climate experts: Gina McCarthy, the first White House national climate advisor under the Biden administration, Linus Mofor, from UNICEF, and Erin Coughlan Perez, a professor at The Friedman School at Tufts. An audience member asked the panel if they saw any reason for hope given the changing climate. Tietjen said she found hope listening to their answers.

“I get a lot of inspiration from other people who've been working on these issues for a much longer time than I have,” Tietjen said. “They are still hopeful and are still showing up every day to do this work.”

Read more about Fletcher’s delegation to COP and Fletcher’s Climate Policy Lab.