The Limits of Outside Opinion in Gaza

by Daniel Drezner, Professor of International Politics

Israel is ramping up its plans to move into Gaza with overwhelming force. I have received many queries from students along the lines of, “Is there anything we can do to stop the worst from happening?” Because it’s all too easy to envisage the carnage that will come from a ground offensive. 

I wish I could agree with calling on Western leaders to articulate their concerns with a louder voice. I wish I could offer my students some kind of intellectual light out of the coming darkness. The hard truth, however, is that folks in the West possess very little agency in this situation. What agency they do possess is difficult to exercise publicly. 

The intentional attack on Israeli civilians was heinous. Israel is going to respond because they see no other option after the loss of their deterrent power against Hamas. This is precisely what any other state in the international system would do if it possessed similar capabilities. No government could not retaliate, could not demonstrate the severe consequences of such an assault. 

Furthermore, any public allied pressure runs the risk of backfiring. In the wake of 9/11, nothing an ally said could have tamped down the U.S. public demand for a military response. If anything, such public pronouncements would have likely hardened the hearts of Americans. The same is true with Israelis right now. 

If this holds for allied governments, it holds with even greater force for outside experts. There are simply moments when public commentary will have no effect because every actor is locked into their course of action. The former dean of The Fletcher School, Stephen Bosworth, believed in the idea of “ripeness"– that the time to advocate for diplomacy or a policy shift was contingent on the receptivity of others to such advice. The current moment is not ripe at all. 

The Biden administration should exercise whatever influence it can over Israel's response. The optimal way that influence can be properly exercised, however, is behind closed doors. If and only if Israel refuses to listen should the Biden administration go more public. 

This closely tracks what the administration is doing. After behind-the-scenes warnings, officials have become more vocal. On “60 Minutes,” Biden supported taking out Hamas but also said, “Look… Hamas and the extreme elements of Hamas don’t represent all the Palestinian people. And I think that it would be a mistake for Israel to occupy Gaza again.” Hopefully Israeli policymakers read that statement in the way it was intended. 

This dynamic leaves outside observers in a frustrating position. Our best choice is to prepare to offer alternatives when policymakers are open to changing their minds. Until then, we can do two things. First, remind everyone about the costs of an Israeli invasion. Second, demonstrate empathy for those who, right now, do not want to listen to outside voices because they are in so much pain. Only when that pain subsides will anyone be able to influence them publicly.

This piece was submitted for publication on October 19th, 2023.