Domestic dissatisfaction with the state is widely believed to encourage international conflict. Although both folk IR and diversionary theories of international conflict invoke this relationship, the mechanisms through which domestic dissatisfaction (kindling) increases the likelihood of aggressive foreign policy (sparks), fanning the flames of international conflict, remains unspecified and untested. We develop theoretical mechanisms connecting domestic drivers of dissatisfaction to foreign policy outcomes via public opinion and test these mechanisms in the theoretically and empirically important case of China. Leveraging two potential sources of discontent—the coronavirus and an economic slowdown—we use a rich multimedia design embedded in a survey of Chinese nationals. Despite strong first-order effects, we find no evidence of an interaction between domestic conditions and foreign policy preferences. This holds across hundreds of specifications and subgroups. The findings cast doubt on the microfoundations of diversionary theory, suggesting a much more nuanced and contingent relationship.