Fletcher experts assess global implications of Nicolás Maduro's capture
The Day After
By Rockford Weitz, Professor of the Practice in Maritime Studies
(January 5) We have entered the "Day After” challenge in Venezuela. The United States has faced this situation before: in Japan and Germany in 1945, in South Korea in the 1950s, in Grenada in 1983, in Panama in 1990, in Afghanistan in 2001, in Iraq in 2003, and in Libya in 2011. The Trump administration's fundamental challenge is to put in place a transition plan that increases the chances of Venezuela ending up like Panama or Grenada, rather than like Libya.
This raises many hard geopolitical questions, such as how to empower the Venezuelan opposition after 25 years of political dysfunction and dictatorship, whether to put an elite but small U.S. military force in the Presidential Palace in Caracas, whether to occupy Venezuela's military bases, and more.
How the Trump administration navigates these challenges will have global implications in the great power competition with China and Russia, as well as on regional geopolitical rivals such as Iran and North Korea.
International Law
By John Cerone, Visiting Professor of International Law
(January 5) The primary body of international law regulating the legality of this strike is called the jus ad bellum, which refers to the rules of international law that govern recourse to the use of armed force between states.
The main argument supporting the legality of the strike would be that the United States used armed force with the consent of the legitimate government of Venezuela. The U.S., the European Union, and the Organization of American States all refused to recognize the Maduro government as the legitimate government of Venezuela. The U.S. instead recognized the opposition candidate as the rightful president. As such, the U.S. could argue that the strike was not against Venezuela, but on behalf of Venezuela.
The main counterargument is that the Maduro government continues to be accepted by the United Nations General Assembly as the government of Venezuela. This was evidenced most recently by the GA’s adoption on December 12 of the report of the UN Credentials Committee, which accepted Maduro’s representatives as the Venezuelan delegation.
A subsidiary argument that the U.S. might use would be that it was exercising the right of self-defense. However, this would be unlikely to pass muster with the "jury" of the international community.
Russia and the Oil Industry
By Mikhail Troitskiy, Visiting Professor
(January 5) The impact of Maduro's arrest on Russian oil exports depends on several factors that are challenging to assess. Certainly, many global importers have interest in replacing Russian oil with an equally cheap and less politically and logistically risky alternative. However, it is not clear how quickly additional Venezuelan oil can be delivered to market. This depends on whether a deal on governing Venezuela that would satisfy the United States can be hammered out promptly - without such a deal, the US has threatened to thwart the Venezuelan oil industry - and on how much investment and time are necessary to bring the technologically outdated Venezuelan spare capacity online.
Much depends on what happens with Russian business interests in Venezuela. So far, the Trump Administration has not threatened to squeeze any specific foreign power or its corporations out of the Venezuelan oil sector. Washington may be tempted to collaborate with the Russian oil major Rosneft in Venezuela - some experts have suggested that mixing Russian crude with heavier Venezuelan oil would be profitable to whoever controls Venezuelan oil trade. Reporting indicates that the Kremlin has offered resumed collaboration with Rosneft to U.S. oil majors, in an attempt to court the United States during its mediation on the Russia-Ukraine war. To make collaboration with Russia in the Venezuelan oil sector happen, the United States would need to lift its sanctions on Rosneft or other Russian oil companies.
Governing Venezuela
By Monica Duffy Toft, Professor of International Politics
(January 4) There is no dispute that Maduro’s dictatorship led to Venezuela’s catastrophic collapse. Under his rule, Venezuela’s economy imploded, democratic institutions were hollowed out, criminal networks fused with the state, and millions fled the country – many for the United States.
But removing a leader – even a brutal and incompetent one – is not the same as advancing a legitimate political order.
Venezuela’s infrastructure is already in ruins. If the United States assumes responsibility for governance, it will be blamed for every blackout, every food shortage and every bureaucratic failure. The liberator will quickly become the occupier.
The United States has historically been strongest when it anchored an open sphere built on collaboration with allies, shared rules and voluntary alignment. Launching a military operation and then assuming responsibility for governance shifts Washington toward a closed, coercive model of power – one that relies on force to establish authority and is prohibitively costly to sustain over time.
Force is fast. Legitimacy is slow. But legitimacy is the only currency that buys durable peace and stability – both of which remain enduring U.S. interests.
If Washington governs by force in Venezuela, it will repeat the failures of Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya: Power can topple regimes, but it cannot create political authority. Outside rule invites resistance, not stability.
For more, read Professor Toft's piece in The Conversation
Professor Rockford Weitz speaks to Bloomberg Businessweek about the use of U.S. force in Venezuela. (January 5)
Academic Dean Daniel Drezner analyzes U.S. strategy towards Venezuela in an interview with GBH News. (January 5)
Professor Rockford Weitz appears on WILK radio to discuss Venezuela's political future. (January 5)
Professor Monica Duffy Toft authors a piece for The Conversation, analyzing President Donald Trump's ambition to "run" Venezuela. (January 4)
Academic Dean Daniel Drezner joins 12 fellow experts to offer analysis on how events in Venezuela could reshape the world order. (January 4)
Boston's Fox affiliate hosts Professor Rockford Weitz for a discussion on the morning of Maduro's capture. (January 3)