A Negotiated Solution in Honduras
Reprinted from La Nacion
By Jaime Daremblum, F64
September 4, 2009
Diplomatic action in the Honduran political crisis has now taken a central role.
There are signs –finally- of developments leading toward a negotiated solution to the political crisis in Honduras. This is the result of diplomatic action assuming the central role it should have always had, following the remedying of the many stumbles and initial mistakes of actors such as the Organization of American States (OAS). Even Secretary General José Miguel Insulza has seen that there is still an opportunity for negotiations and seeking out agreements.
The pure and simple reality is that political crises such as Honduras’ have more of a direct impact on average citizens and their quality of life than on political elites. Economic and trade sanctions affect the general population more than the leaders of either side of the conflict. The political contractions also deprive Hondurans of the stability needed to address the issues that affect the third-poorest country in the continent. In this regard, it is irrelevant whether protesters march in favor of Zelaya or Micheletti.
A first step: more must follow. Securing peace and order for the Honduran people is much more important than each side’s own interests. The main actors in the Honduran crisis have been called upon to make sacrifices in the interest of their homeland. Both sides will have to yield significantly to reach a viable agreement, and the international community must promote and support that approach.
Roberto Micheletti has taken the first indispensable step, by officially expressing to a visiting delegation of OAS Foreign Ministers that he is willing to resign under the framework of a negotiated solution to the conflict. This reflects what I pointed out on this page on July 9th, as political realism makes it apparent that “Micheletti would not be able govern effectively, since he is not acceptable for Zelaya and his supporters within the population.”
But the other side has yet to reciprocate the gesture. The same political realism indicates that Manuel Zelaya would also not have any chance of governing in harmony with the rest of Honduras’ state institutions. All of them are opposed to him. Moreover, Zelaya has yet to give any signs of putting the superior interests of the Honduran people ahead of his own.
Unfeasible return. The unfeasibility of Zelaya’s return to the presidency is no longer just about political factors. It is now related to growing evidence of corruption in his management of the government and within his closest entourage. Since April –long before his expulsion- Honduran authorities have been investigating the case of a $1 million bribe given to Hondutel, the state-owned telecommunications provider. The evidence is overwhelming: Latinode, the Miami-based company that provided the bribe in return for preferential pricing, admitted its culpability to American authorities and gave names of officials involved in the payoff. Marcelo Chimirri, former Hondutel chief executive and a close ally of Zelaya, has been jailed and faces graft charges.
Another scandal involves Arístides Mejía, Zelaya’s designated Vice President and then- Defense Minister. Mejia¸ as well as Rebeca Santos, then-Finance Minister, for their participation in the suspicious lease of a building, where a Honduran tribunal found anomalies in a sum of $800,000 over a span of 11 months. This - not to mention the deviation of government funds toward Zelaya’s proposed re-election referendum - has been widely denounced.
It is clear that the solution to the crisis will not come neither from Zelaya’s return or Micheletti remaining in power. The country needs to return to normalcy, and a crucial factor in achieving this will be the upcoming presidential elections in November. Both the candidates and the elections themselves originated independently of the crisis. In fact, Elvin Santos, Zelaya’s former Vice President and one of the current candidates, had Zelaya’s support in his party’s convention - against Roberto Micheletti’s candidacy.
If an atmosphere of normalcy can be created in the country that would allow the campaigns to run their natural course and create a transparent electoral process, Honduras would finally be able to count on a legitimatized mandate; one that promotes unity and refocuses the country toward the real priorities: encouraging development and fighting the poverty that continues to afflict the Honduran people.
• Jaime Daremblum is Director of the Center for Latin American Studies at the Hudson Institute. This article appeared in Spanish in Costa Rica’s La Nacion, Pagina Quince section, on September 1, 2009. It has been translated by Andres Vedova and Ioannis Saratsis.