Flynn Advocates U.S. Resiliency in Confronting Challenges
Fletcher Alumnus Stephen Flynn (MALD ’88, PH.D. ’91) returned to The Fletcher School on February 28th to share his insights on current challenges in national security, focusing on the critical but often overlooked role of infrastructure in US national and economic security.. Dr. Flynn is the Jeane J. Kirkpatrick senior fellow for national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, as well as a Commander in the U.S. Coast Guard (ret.), and his visit to Fletcher was as a guest of the Program in Southwest Asia and Islamic Civilization. He is author of a new book called The Edge of Disaster: Rebuilding a Resilient Nation, which will be released by Random House in 2007.
In his very lively and entertaining talk, Dr. Flynn focused primarily on his desire to see the U.S. proactively and resiliently confront the myriad challenges it faces in the 21st Century. Open and ongoing public discourse and corresponding intensive investment in public infrastructure are crucial in achieving this necessary step forward. Dr. Flynn implored U.S. leaders to "identify infrastructure as a public good that needs to be nurtured."
"America has become like the person who inherits their grandparent’s mansion, but doesn’t feel like paying for any of the necessary upkeep," said Dr. Flynn.
He illustrated the current lack of U.S. commitment to maintaining public infrastructure, including public health and policing, by pointing out that the U.S. federal government only spent 110 billion dollars on public infrastructure last year, about half of China’s comparable expenditures. As a result, much of the onus for the necessary expenditures is being pushed down to an already overwhelmed local government.
"This is not sustainable," warned Dr. Flynn, who went on to detail the potentially dire consequences of failing to commit the necessary intellectual and financial resources to confronting this problem. The aging U.S. infrastructure leaves the U.S. vulnerable to diverse threats, including those with far greater potential negative impact than terrorism. A flu pandemic, climate change, or natural disasters are all grave potential threats to U.S. health and economic well-being. Moreover, the current weak state of U.S. infrastructure exacerbates the damage caused by disasters such as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which together destroyed over 155,000 square miles of property. Dr. Flynn argued that these types of events pose a greater threat to the U.S. than terrorist attacks.
"Terrorism is one of many hazards confronting us in the 21st Century," Dr. Flynn said. However, he does not see terrorism posing as existential a threat to the U.S. as the Cold War did. He encouraged policymakers to "take a deep breath" because terrorism is something that the U.S. "can work [its] way through."
Dr. Flynn sees the danger that emerging terror threats by non-state actors could pose to globalization. A widespread public backlash could dampen the will of the American people to be intertwined in vital global economic and political networks. He points to the Dubai Ports World fallout as a good example of how little understanding some Americans have of such global networks. Dr. Flynn believes that great effort should be directed at keeping these systems resilient enough to prevent a shut-down in the event of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (a "needle in a haystack scenario").
"The system itself is the critical thing that needs to be protected," said Dr. Flynn.
In order to best address contemporary security concerns, Dr. Flynn feels that U.S. leaders must be willing to anticipate things that have very bad consequences, engage in pragmatic investments to mitigate these risks, and develop capabilities to restore damaged areas as quickly as possible. These types of infrastructure investments would also have the positive consequence of limiting damages caused by a potential terrorist attack.
"Terrorism is a small investment for a big return from an adversary standpoint, because of cascading effects," said Dr. Flynn. He pointed out that minimizing these negative cascading effects by being prepared and investing in infrastructure decreases the incentive of terrorists to attack in the first place.
Dr. Flynn also encouraged leaders to reconsider their strategic assumptions. For example, although he believes Iraq is currently a national security and foreign policy concern "of the 1st order," Dr. Flynn argued that "the only connection with the war on terror is that [Iraq] is making it worse."
Dr. Flynn does not subscribe to the conventional wisdom that "the best defense is a good offense." Rather, he stated that "the best defense is a good defense, augmented by a good offense when you have the intelligence to support it."
In terms of the war on terror, Dr. Flynn wants to invert the contemporary paradigm and build resiliency in the U.S., while not losing sight of the ideals on which the country was founded.
"Let’s work our way through the foreseeable future consequential problems we can prevent," said Dr. Flynn.