The last few months have witnessed extraordinary events in east Asia. There was the picture of Hu Jintao, China's president, shaking hands in Beijing with Lien Chan, leader of the Kuomintang party - once the Communist party's rival for power in China - a handshake that opened new possibilities for greater stability in the Taiwan Strait. There was the sharp reminder that nationalism continues to threaten stability. First in Korea and then in China anti-Japanese sentiment exploded, sparked by disputes over various islands, smouldering resentment over Japan's alleged lack of remorse for past aggression and Tokyo's campaign for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. Finally, the North Korea nuclear stand-off has deteriorated and seems to be turning into a game of chicken.
The US has been an observer and contributor to these events. Its contribution on the most urgent problem, North Korea's nuclear programme, is unimpressive. While President George W. Bush keeps reiterating the rationale for his multilateral forum - to marshal pressure on North Korea to halt its nuclear weapons programme - no progress has been made in the past two years; for nearly a year there have been no talks. Meanwhile, Pyongyang has accelerated its nuclear programmes at little diplomatic cost. None of this is surprising since Washington's main partners - China and South Korea - do not agree with its approach.
In May, Mr Bush raised the temperature by withdrawing teams that were in North Korea to look for the remains of American soldiers killed during the Korean war, and stationing stealth bombers in South Korea. Presumably this is to scare the North back to negotiations and to scare Beijing and Seoul into getting tough with the North for fear of reckless American action. Even if pressure causes North Korea to return to talks, not much can be expected unless both the US and North Korea are ready to negotiate.
Mr Lien's China visit, encouraged by the US, holds more promise. On one level it was a rather brazen effort to diminish the separatist position of Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan's president. While China gave no concession on Taiwan and made clear that it does not yet want to talk to Mr Chen, the visit has made separatist efforts more difficult. Conceivably we could be at the beginning of a political process that would improve stability in the Taiwan Strait and ultimately heal the longest running sore in east Asia.
China and Japan's coexistence is essential for stability. Anti-Japanese nationalism is anachronistic when the integration of east Asian economies is accelerating. But whether market-driven integration can be augmented by political co-operation remains to be seen. Nationalism is powerful in all these countries, and political leaders will succumb to using it for immediate political advantage. That opportunism can prove very dangerous.
How these developments turn out is vital to the US. Inevitably Washington will play a key role in the outcome. But America's absorption with the Middle East has left top officials little time to concentrate on east Asia. On vital issues the government remains divided. One group wants to isolate North Korea and force its collapse, another to negotiate seriously. Efforts to prod China to force Pyongyang to give up its nuclear programmes have floundered. Indeed, America's Korea policy seems to be in a shambles, and relations with its South Korean ally have deteriorated. After a rocky start on China, Mr Bush has proceeded pragmatically. He risked alienating his domestic political base by bluntly telling Mr Chen to stop pushing his separatist vision.
But now important American constituencies with grievances against China are converging in ways that can cause big problems in Sino-American relations. The Pentagon is increasingly agitated because China is not resigned to being a weak military power. Congress wants to force an economically resurgent China to revalue its currency, curtail exports, and respect intellectual property rights, while the administration tries to prevent protectionism getting out of hand. Non-governmental organisations dislike China's back-sliding on human rights. Some of this may be helpful, some is counterproductive.
Difficult as it may be intellectually, politically, and bureaucratically, the US must develop a serious policy approach to China's extraordinary new position in Asia and the world.
Morton Abramowitz is senior fellow at the Century Foundation and Stephen Bosworth is dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University; both served as US ambassadors in east Asia. They are preparing a book on America and east Asia.
