The Fletcher School

"When people in the West talk about democratization, they are usually talking about three things: multi-party free elections, freedom of speech, and a legal system that provides fair trials. With this very Western view of democratization, we’ve missed a lot of what has been going on in China."

Suzanne Ogden’s November 22 talk at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy’s Hitachi Center, “Looking into the Crystal Ball: China’s Prospects for Democracy,” explored three different scenarios for China’s political future.

A Professor of Political Science at Northeastern University and esteemed author on the subject of Chinese democratization and culture, Ogden has been active in the China field for over 25 years. Her talk was part of the monthly speaker series at Fletcher made possible by The Hitachi Center.

Cultural Conservatism

"One possible scenario is that China will resist further democratization," she began, explaining that obstacles to democratization in China can be found in Chinese culture, as well as in the government.

There is a very conservative element to Chinese culture, she continued, and ordinary people are not necessarily interested in reforms. "There is actually a declining interest in participating in political system, especially in the cities, as people move away from work units in their villages and become entrepreneurs, too busy making money to be involved in local politics."

Odgen pointed out that some even argue Confucianism is just as much an impediment to reform in China as Communism.

As a result of the Confucian values that permeate Chinese society, Ogden told her audience, people in China perceive balances of control and freedom differently than those in liberal democracies.

"People in China worry what individual rights might do to law and order, they see serious costs associated with democratization, and it is easy for the government to play into this."

Political collapse?

A second, much less likely, scenario for China’s political future, according to Ogden, is that the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] regime might collapse because of forces beyond its control.

However, when it collapses, she warned, the result will not be democracy.

Although China seems secure in hands of CCP now, the government is not in complete control. Ogden recalled political collapses in Central Europe and the former Soviet Union, and pointed out that it has been very difficult to introduce democracy amidst the post-collapse chaos.

The key question here, she said, is: "Will the Party State be able to stay afloat amidst the new challenges which social and economic development it has put into place?"

"Which spark will start the fire?" she continued, "A stock market collapse? Taiwan provocation? We don’t know."

"It is amazing though," she added, "that the death of one person could spark Tiananmen Square."

Pragmatism and gradual change

The most probable scenario for China’s political future, according to Ogden, is that "the Party State will continue to act in a very pragmatic, rational, cost-benefit way that is neither threatening to social order nor threatening to the CCP staying in power."

And while democratization in China may seem painfully slow, or even nonexistent to the Western eye, she argued that there have actually been many groundbreaking changes in China.

For example, between 1949 and 1979, the leadership in China dramatically changed. Reformers came in and introduced a lot of basic rights, including housing, food, work, more equality between men and women, and greater literacy.

She also pointed out that China’s mass media has expanded drastically in recent years, and while it is still not free, the changes are significant. Additionally, interest groups have formed to protect entrepreneurs, and many work closely with the state.

Furthermore, according to Ogden, the Party State is much more tolerant of criticism through official public channels.

"What’s holding China together," Ogden said, "is the dynamic quality of all these things pressing for their interests at the provincial and national levels."

"The general trend will be forward," she predicted, "assuming everything else remains equal, i.e., that China’s economy remains stable."

Progress and paradoxes

It is important to acknowledge that "while the Chinese government has made a fuss about rejecting Western standards for democracy and human rights, it actually takes some of these standards seriously in the way people in the CCP discuss reforms and they have responded to criticisms that have been made," Ogden said.

Additionally, while many perceive democratization to be threatening to the current leadership, Ogden noted that "the introduction of many rights and democratization processes have actually enhanced ability of CCP to stay in power."

All in all, Ogden concluded, it is important to acknowledge that while the People’s Republic of China is not a democracy using a Western definition of the word, the country’s political system is evolving and positive change is happening.

Article by Claire Topal MALD '05