The Fletcher School

December 5, 2004
Reprinted from The Boston Globe Magazine

Yasser Arafat's death has raised hopes that Israel and a new Palestinian leadership will revive the peace process, but even before that, there was considerable local interest in Middle Eastern issues. Last month, for example, the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University hosted two seminars about Middle Eastern issues. Though Israeli settlers angrily oppose withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, Israel's Knesset has approved it. Will the withdrawal advance the cause of peace? Joshua Gleis, who holds dual Israeli and US citizenship, studied at Tel Aviv University, and majored in Near Eastern studies at Cornell, thinks it will. Allison Beth Hodgkins, who is married to a Palestinian and spent time in Gaza while living in Jerusalem for six years, is less sure. Both are students at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, where this conversation took place.

GLEIS While it is by no means a perfect deal, the withdrawal will help the peace process. The Israelis are giving back this land and expecting nothing, not a stop to terrorism or anything else. That's why most of the world, including the European Union, the United Nations, and even most of the Arab world, supports it.

HODGKINS Josh is using the word "give." Palestinians tend to cringe at that term because it implies that this belonged to Israel, whereas the world community recognizes that this is land on which Palestinians live and which does not belong to Israel.

GLEIS The majority of Israelis today embrace this proposal, and it will be an olive branch to new Palestinian leadership. For years, Israel has tried to negotiate with the Palestinian side, but as long as Arafat was in power, there was no one to negotiate with. So Israel is withdrawing on its own terms. Now, with Arafat's death, it could be that this won't just be a unilateral withdrawal by Israel but a withdrawal negotiated with the Palestinian side.

HODGKINS The Palestinians are being given about 365 square kilometers that is basically a sand bar, with over a million Palestinians, 60 percent of them making less than a dollar a day, 45 percent of them 14 or under, and an unemployment rate of about 50 percent. The average Palestinian says, "Yes, we will be happy to see the backs of the Israeli soldiers," but they see this withdrawal as a dead end. Palestinians believe this is a ploy to allow [Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon to hold the West Bank. And it will create a situation that is so unstable that when Gaza implodes, Israel will reoccupy Gaza and build an even higher fence.

GLEIS The Israelis are withdrawing not just to be nice to the Palestinians but because they want to get the heck of out of Gaza. You're saying the occupation should continue because there is no comprehensive peace plan.

HODGKINS It would be a first step if it were part of a process. Sharon sees the peace process as something that will go on for years and years while Israel maintains the status quo on the ground. A first step that has a second step 30 years in the future is very different than saying we need to sit at the table now. Over the last few years, the legitimacy and popularity of the secular Palestinian national movement represented by Fatah and Arafat has declined while the radical Islamist faction - Hamas and Islamic Jihad - has gained popularity, which is alarming. Israel's withdrawal could lead to the creation of a Hamas mini-state in Gaza.

GLEIS To say that Hamas would not become more popular if Israel continued to occupy the Gaza strip is ridiculous. It's the exact opposite. Over the years, what Palestinians have been offered at various times has always been significantly less than the last offer. They keep rejecting and get less and less and keep fighting for more and more. Why don't they do what the Israelis have done and say the Gaza proposal is not all what we want, but it's a first step and we'll build from there. How does that possibly not benefit the Palestinians and the peace process?

HODGKINS Palestinians tried negotiations and thought they had a good-faith agreement with Israel in 1993 [with the Oslo Accords]. But in the years since, Israel whittled down what that Palestinian territory would be. Palestinians accepted negotiations and still didn't get the bare minimum needed to have a viable Palestinian state.

GLEIS This is not perfect. There does need to be a negotiated settlement, but if Ariel Sharon, who is the architect of the settlement movement, is able to make this first step, that's possible. It would be a tragic mistake to turn this down.

HODGKINS The Israeli soul does not like to be in the position of being occupiers. It's much easier to withdraw and let the Palestinians sort it out. This is a cynical ploy and part of a larger strategy to eventually diminish what the Palestinians will be offered, if they are ever allowed to have a state at all. I hope Josh is right and this plan works. I hope Sharon will withdraw and form a unity government with Labor and go right back to the table. But the facts on the ground speak otherwise.

Article by Phil Primack