If Fletcher students ran the world

Simulex 2003 asks students how they would deal with global crisis

A nuclear explosion in Najaf, Iraq. Anthrax outbreaks in Rome, London and Israel. Bombed Saudi oil fields. Fletcher students were asked to take on the role of national policy makers in responding to these hypothetical catastrophes last weekend during Simulex 2003, a crisis management exercise at the Fletcher School. (www.fletcher.tufts.edu/simulex)

Simulex, a 2-day program sponsored by the International Security Studies Program at Fletcher, involved almost 100 participants. Fletcher students were joined by cadets from the US Military Academy in West Point; Fletcher alumni; representatives from the National Security Council, the Department of Defense, and the Central Intelligence Agency; and war-gaming experts from all branches of the US military.

The aim of the exercise, held every year at Fletcher, is to show participants the constraints and opportunities of national policy makers trying to negotiate an escalating international conflict. This year, the scenario focused on a nuclear weapons crisis in Iraq.
Participants were divided into 7 teams representing the US/UK, the EU, Israel, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and al Qaeda. Using an interactive web-based program called ICONS (http://www.icons.umd.edu), participants sent out diplomatic messages, released press statements, organized summits, mobilized troops and engaged in covert operations. Face-to-face meetings happened in Fletcher’s Hall of Flags, as the EU-US/UK teams tried to mobilize NATO, and Iran and Saudi Arabia tried to find a common front to the crisis in Iraq.
The game was mediated and manipulated by a Control team, composed of war-gaming experts and military officials. They presented two updated scenarios on the second day that included anthrax outbreaks in major cities, an unexploded dirty bomb in Washington D.C., and sky-rocketing oil prices.

The exercise was quite eventful: Despite al-Qaeda’s concerted attempts to lure Israel into war, conflict was narrowly avoided after an Israeli raid into Syria. Iran managed to maintain social stability despite the assassination of its Ayatollah. Saudi Arabia captured Ossama bin Laden (thanks mostly to the those sitting in Control).

Professor Robert Pfaltzgraff, the mastermind behind the scenario, declared Simulex 2003 a great success. “Much of what we’re doing here is based on reality,” he said in his closing remarks, “I was trying to escalate the situation to test … a variety of responses across the spectrum, where we could hardly separate international and domestic issues.”

Students learned both about team dynamics and world politics. Susanna Campbell, MALD ’05, and co-leader of the Iraq team, said it helped her understand “the tenuous
situation that Iraq is placed in, balancing the US and the Islamic world.
Not an easy task, particularly if you don't have the resources necessary and
have to rely on others for those resources.”

Odil Ruzaliev, MALD ’05, said he chose to be on the al-Qaeda team because he thought “it would be more fun to play when you don't have a constitution and laws to obey.” Although he enjoyed the exercise, he said it was too unrealistic: “Like every other Hollywood movie …Simulex too ended with a happy end, although in reality we know neither bin Laden nor Saddam Hussein has been caught.”

Scott Zimmerman, Fletcher '91, who participated on the US/UK team, said participants learned quickly and gained a lot of confidence over the two days. “The US/UK team learned to identify their interests and priorities effectively following only a few hours of struggling.” Zimmerman is an International Affairs and Management Specialist at the Harvard Business School, and has participated in seven past Simulex exercises at Fletcher.

Zimmerman noted that this year’s participants on the US/UK team were very aware of the negative world opinion of the US as a result of post 9/11 US policies. “This is a new and striking change from the self-image and self-perception of prior US teams,” he said. This changing world image, “as well as policies that seek to contain US influence and power, have created a series of new challenges and limitations on U.S. decision-makers in the conduct of foreign relations -- particularly in the conduct of alliance diplomacy and increasingly, in regional possibilities to project American power.”