Economic Transformation and Political Re-Balancing on a Global Scale:
The Cases of India and China
The rise of Western Europe and the United States to global dominance arguably can be described as the pre-eminent historical phenomenon of the past 500 years. In 1500, the ten European kingdoms that would become the modern era’s global empires accounted for 10 percent of the world’s territory and a little more than 40 percent of its economic output. By 1913, those same states, plus the United States, controlled 58 percent of the world’s land surface and 79 percent of global GDP. On the eve of World War I, the world was characterized by a yawning institutional and technological gap between the West and the Rest. In Europe, assumptions of white racial superiority were much en vogue, and academics routinely discussed impediments both formal and informal to non-white advancement. This was, so to speak, the ultimate global imbalance.
What a difference a hundred years can make. Today, ‘economic convergence’ seems well on its way as hitherto less prosperous countries catch up with their richer counterparts. In aggregate terms, the economies of the United States and Europe will likely be overtaken by China soon, with India not too far behind. The financial and sovereign debt crises that began in 2007 has revealed fundamental structural problems as well as a culture of debt accumulation in nations whose predominance in institutions of global governance used to be taken for granted. Today, China is the single largest creditor of the United States government, and European heads of state are asking the Chinese president for money.
Against the backdrop of ongoing economic transformation and political re-balancing on a global scale, we shall be looking at two major actors, that is, India and China. In light of what the French so aptly call “histoire longue”, one might say that things are merely getting back to normal. China and India, after all, must be considered as re-emerging rather than emerging economies as they are regaining an eminence they once enjoyed. For more than a thousand years and well into the 19th century, these two were the world’s biggest economies by a comfortable margin. Today, they are clearly on the rebound. Yet, in what regard and to what extent is the world’s center of gravity actually shifting from West to East? Obviously, economic numbers alone do not tell the whole story.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
The GLOBE seminar begins with a reception and dinner on Thursday evening preceding the Friday seminar. The dinner brings together GLOBE seminar presenters and invited participants, as well as 35 outstanding graduate students of international affairs from several premier institutions.
The students have spent the prior four days in an intensive seminar on “Leadership in Humanitarian Crisis.” On Thursday, the students will present group briefings centered on policy and practical options for a particularly named crisis. GLOBE Leadership seminar participants and presenters are encouraged to attend the student presentations if at all possible.
14:00-15:30 Student Presentations
15:30-16:00 Coffee break
16:00-17:30 Student Presentations
Presentations and discussions occur at the Tufts European Center
18:30-19:30 Reception for all students and GLOBE leadership seminar participants
Hotel Le Cottage, Talloires
19:30 Dinner for all students and GLOBE leadership seminar participants
Hotel Le Cottage, Talloires
Friday, September 28, 2012
9:00 – 10:30 Session I: Analyzing the Business Environment: The Case of China
Whereas ‘economic development’ continues to draw much attention, we shall focus on the broader context within the two countries in question. We begin with China.
To what extent has the tremendous economic development of the last 30 years led to modifications in the broader domestic context? Will economic adjustments continue to be possible without adjustments in the political system? What are potential sources of instability in the medium and long term? The main objective of the first (and second) session is to shed light on political and economic fundamentals as well as challenges in specific areas.
- The role of political governance
- Selected economic fundamentals: financial and human resources, natural resources, energy, environment
- China-specific challenges (e.g., demographics, ethnic minorities, dynamics of urbanization, intellectual property)
Presenters
Kelly Sims Gallagher
Associate Professor of Energy and Environmental Policy, The Fletcher School, Tufts University, USA
Gary H. Jefferson
Carl Marks Professor of International Trade and Finance, Brandeis University, USA
Lu Xiankun
Counsellor and Head of Division for Cross-cutting Issues of the Permanent Mission of China to the WTO (Geneva)
Annette Nijs
Executive Director of the Global Initiative, China Europe International Business School (CEIBS), Shanghai, China
11:00 - 12:30 Session II: Analyzing the Business Environment: The Case of India
Drawing on the same analytical framework, we now turn to India and explore recent trends and developments. What are major obstacles in India’s way?
- The role of political governance
- Selected economic fundamentals: financial and human resources, natural resources, energy, environment
- India-specific challenges (e.g., the cultural and religious dimension, informal sector, infrastructure, education paradox, nationalism, separatism, and other threats to internal security)
Presenters
Bhaskar Chakravorti
Senior Associate Dean, International Business and Finance, Executive Director Institute for Business in the Global Context and the Center for Emerging Market Enterprises, The Fletcher School, Tufts University, USA
Naina Lal Kidwai
Group General Manager and Country Head, HSBC India
Harinder Kohli
President and Chief Executive Officer, Centennial Group International and Founding Director and Chief Executive of the Emerging Markets Forum
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12:30-14:00 Group Luncheon at Hotel L’Abbaye, Talloires ___________________________________________________________
14:15 – 15:45 Session III: Understanding the Relationship and Regional Implications
Do China and India converge or diverge? What is the quality of their current relationship? For many years, there was only one magnetic pole on the Asian compass, i.e., Washington. In the wake of China’s recent rise, the geopolitics of the region has become more complicated. At the same time, the extent to which China’s growing economic clout poses a challenge rather than new opportunities to the outside world is not obvious. What, then, is the current dynamics in the wider region? And if it is true that Asians increasingly want to do things “on their own,” how does it show?
- Synthesis of Sessions I and II: divergence and convergence in political and social transformation
- Economic rivalry: trade, energy, resources
- Political rivalry: the politics of security, power, and prestige
Presenters
Muthiah Alagappa
Tun Hussein Onn Chair in International Studies, Institute of Strategic and International Studies Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Urs Schoettli
Author, journalist, consultant
Adam Segal
Ira A. Lipman Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), New York City
16:00 – 17:15 Session IV: Looking at the Broader Picture
In this final session, we will attempt to draw conclusions and put recent developments in South and East Asia in a global context. What is going on, then? Is the world’s center of gravity actually shifting from West to East? If so, how does it show, and what are wider implications, e.g., with regard to formal institutions and informal patterns of global governance? What are likely strategies of China and India to establish their new roles in a global context? How should the West react?
At the outset, the moderator will briefly offer his take on essential findings from Sessions I-III. The discussion may well take up further central matters.
Moderator/Presenter
Simon Tay
Chairman, Singapore Institute of International Affairs, and Associate Professor, Faculty of Law and Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
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19:00 Group Dinner at Hotel La Charpenterie, Talloires
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