Abstract: The stability of Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state in a troubled region, presents a formidable challenge for the United States. Pakistan-based militant groups undermine the country’s security, help fuel the insurgency in Afghanistan, and increasingly endanger the American homeland. This report identifies the key trends in Pakistan’s stability over the last two years, and evaluates their implications for U.S. policy. Pakistan has made important progress against militancy since 2009, but it is still ambivalent about fully confronting all jihadist groups. At the same time it has become increasingly clear that the United States is constrained in its ability to affect transformative change in the Pakistani state’s behavior. The report proposes recommendations for policymakers in Washington designed to get Pakistan to do more against militancy in the long run. In the short term, however, the United States should expect progress in Pakistan to be slow and incremental, rather than conclusive.
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