As oil prices drop, nuclear power is becoming less attractive in the region. So why is Iran still hanging on to its program?
In light of Iran's rapidly accelerating nuclear program, more than a
dozen states in the Middle East have also announced their intention to
develop nuclear energy programs. The trend has caused much anxiety among
members of the global community. It has sparked concerns about the
spread of nuclear technology that could contribute to nuclear weapons
proliferation in the Middle East, intensify arms races in the region
among all classes of weapons, and become a target for terrorist
activity. On this site, Joe Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares
Fund, wrote about the United Arab Emirates (UAE): "After they have
developed nuclear technologies, trained nuclear scientists and
engineers, and plugged into global nuclear markets, will they go one
step further and build uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing
plants that could be used to make fuel -- or bombs?"
But the global economic crisis has disrupted the calculus of nuclear
power. An alternative to oil that once appeared to be a clear cost-saver
has now come to look very unattractive. And countries are responding by
shuttering their programs. Currently, there is not a single operational
nuclear power plant in all of the Middle East, and the only one
scheduled to go live in the near future will be the Bushehr plant in
Iran next year. The scaling back of the Middle Eastern nuclear industry
seems rational and likely within the context of global trends -- and
this fact raises serious questions about Iran's motivations as it ramps
up its own nuclear program.
A few of these programs, such as the one in the UAE, originally
progressed at a swift pace. The UAE signed memoranda of understanding
with at least five potential supplier states, signed a nuclear
cooperation agreement with the United States, established a federal
nuclear regulatory authority, developed a nuclear material licensing and
control system, passed relevant domestic legislation to govern efforts,
and joined important international treaties, all within a span of three
years. (The average estimated time for a new nuclear energy program to
become operational is generally 15 years.)