American projection of power and its ability to deter its enemies -- be they states or non-state armed groups such as Al Qaeda or Hezbollah -- are critical components of American defense policy. President-elect Obama will face a number of national security issues when he takes office in January: relations with Russia and China, ongoing negotiations with North Korea, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Arab-Israeli peace process. The most pressing crisis that he will need to deal with come day one, however, will be Iran's nuclear weapons program.
The United States must re-examine the manner in which it has dealt with Iran's nuclear program. For too long, U.S. administrations have let their counterparts take the lead in Iranian negotiations. In the meantime, many of those involved in talks with the Iranians have themselves greatly benefited from economic cooperation with the Shiite Islamist regime. Russian assistance, for instance, will allow the Iranians to make their first nuclear plant operational by January 2009. The Germans continue to be the largest trading partner with the Iranians, a country it is supposedly trying to pressure. And NATO ally Turkey recently announced a $12 billion deal to invest in Iran's South Pars offshore gas field. Adept negotiators, the Iranians have used this time to secretly advance their nuclear weapons program while still turning a profit.
President-elect Obama must re-introduce coercive diplomacy as its chief strategy for negotiations with the Iranians. This tactic has proven time and again to be one of America's most effective tools. An Obama administration must begin direct talks with the Iranians, and make them understand that under no circumstances will it allow Iran to develop a nuclear capability. It must be made clear that the use of force is still most definitely on the table. Without the coercive threat of force, diplomacy with Iran will surely fail. At the same time, Obama must let the Russians, Chinese, Europeans and other allies understand that their full cooperation is expected through the use of genuine sticks as well as carrots to pressure Iran into foregoing its nuclear weapons program. The era of America's fellow negotiators speaking out of both sides of their diplomatic mouths must come to an end. A new president will be in town, and the period of blaming everything on the Bush Administration will be gone.