Research

Dr. Itamara Lochard

Senior Researcher, International Security Studies

Itamara Lochard

Dr. Lochard is the Senior Researcher of the International Security Studies Program at the Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, a certified mediator and DoD Information Operations expert. She regularly briefs/advises U.S. combatant commanders and presents current research on non-state groups, governance, technology and conflict to the U.S. Office of the Secretary of Defense Highlands Forum. She has examined the para-state function of these entities since 1988, most notably at the African Studies department of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), as well as at the Institute of International Studies (IIS) and North America Forum at Stanford University.

She analyzes the organizational patterns, areas of cooperation, strategies and tactics of ~1,700 non-state groups that have been active since at least 1996 – including insurgents, militias, terrorists, complex criminal organizations, organized gangs, malicious cyber actors and strategic non-violent actors. These groups are cataloged in a database Dr. Lochard created and maintains since 2003 that merges several existing large datasets and incorporates complex criminal organizations and organized gangs. By conducting individual research on each group and overlaying them with governance data on states since 1996, she empirically demonstrated in 2005, 2008 and 2012 that these groups exist in all four quartiles of aggregated governance scores, clustering in quartiles 2 and 3 for one set of groups, and in quartiles 1, 3 and 4 for the remainder. Dr Lochard posited this demonstrates such groups' need for a basic level of infrastructure to survive.

Finally, she determined five organizational patterns in which such groups emerge, evolve and devolve, arguing that they may do so in no particular sequence, requiring constant vigilance. Consequently, she espouses the use of "insider-partials" (Wher and Lederach) to obtain the true pulse of these actors in a conflict and ensure any peace agreement sticks. Her full methodology, assessment of group dynamics in each quartile, the role of technology and implications for conflict resolution can be found in her publication Understanding the Nexus of Governance, Intrastate Conflict and Non-State Armed Groups: Implications for Peace and Security in the 21st Century available in Ginn Library at Tufts University. You can view the abstract here.  In addition, her methodology and abstracts were posted on the Jebsen Center for Counter-Terrorism website from 2005-2010.

Dr. Lochard has presented her findings, updates and their implications on various aspects of irregular war, strategic communications and cyber issues at the Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) at National Defense University (NDU) in Washington, D.C., the NATO Defense College in Rome, Italy as well as at other various NATO-, UN- and DoD-sponsored fora.  Her research has been prominently reflected in the Fletcher School graduate Internal War seminar she updated in 2003, and co-taught from 2004-2007. Her findings also served as the basis of executive training courses she instructed to mid- to senior-level political-military officers of the Royal Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Armenia and the Critical National Infrastructure Authority of United Arab Emirates. Moreover, in 2008 she used her analysis to create an “Advanced Irregular War Seminar” for senior-level, U.S. Special Forces at U.S. Joint Special Operations University (JSOU) that she still teaches.

Dr. Lochard also shares her insights in course instruction, advanced research workshop participation and publications at the NATO Center of Excellence Defense Against Terrorism (CoE-DAT) in Turkey and NATO HCOE in Romania. Moreover, she works closely with the NATO Cyber Cooperative Defense Center of Excellence (CCDCOE) in Estonia and has participated in all EUCOM-funded, mil-mil, Computer Network Operations familiarization exercises in Estonia and the Republic of Georgia. For several years, she also served as a contributing editor to Princeton University’s Journal of Public & International Affairs.  

When in residence at the Fletcher School, Dr. Lochard counsels graduate students and assists our ISSP U.S. military fellows in developing their fellowship paper, required by their respective services. She has sat on several of our committees including faculty searches, reconstruction and renovation as well as the doctoral degree program. In addition, she founded the monthly Perspectives Gallery photo-journalism exhibits in 2001, which are now on permanent display in Ginn Library. All proceeds are donated to the child soldier rehabilitation efforts of the UN Office of Children in Armed Conflict.

 

Dr. Lochard holds a BS in Foreign Service from Georgetown University and earned four graduate degrees from Stanford University and the Fletcher School. She was awarded a Medal of Honor for Special Services by the Estonian Defense Forces in 2011.

 

Fellowships, Grants, Honors and Awards:

* Medal of Honor for Special Services, Defense League, Republic of Estonia, 2011

* Presidential Award for Citizenship and Public Service, Tufts University

* Stanford University International Institute of Studies Fellow

* Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation Fellow

* H.B. Earhart Foundation Fellow

* George P. Shultz Grant

* Jebsen Center for Counter-Terrorism Studies Grant

* International Security Studies Program Fellow, Fletcher School

 

Selected Presentations and Publications:

“Armed Groups in Irregular War – Advanced Seminar.”  U.S. Joint Special Operations University: MacDill Air Force Base, FL.

Create syllabus and present slides for instruction to mid- to senior-level U.S. Special Operation Forces and Special Forces (2008-present).

 

“Where the Wild Things Truly Are and What They Look Like: Non-state armed groups in the fog of tweets, 1996-2011.” Convergence: Illicit networks in an age of globalization (Washington, DC: NDU Press, forthcoming June 2012). Chapter submitted and presented at International Studies Association 32nd Annual Conference, San Diego, CA, April 2012.

 

“Analysis of Terrorist Group Typologies,” Efficient Crisis Management to Mitigate the Effects of Terrorism. NATO Center of Excellence – Defense Against Terrorism: Istanbul, Turkey, February 2012.

 

“Strategic Communications and Conflict Resolution for 21st Century Threats,”

Efficient Crisis Management to Mitigate the Effects of Terrorism.

NATO Center of Excellence – Defense Against Terrorism: Istanbul, Turkey, February 2012.

 

“Intelligence Sharing in the Fog of Tweets – Contemporary 21st Century Dynamics and Emerging Threats.” Advanced Research Workshop – Intelligence Sharing in Defense against Terrorism. NATO Center of Excellence – Defense Against Terrorism: Ankara, Turkey, December 2011.

 

“Technological Elements of Intelligence in Defense against Terrorism.” Advanced Research Workshop – Technological Elements of Defense against Terrorism. NATO Center of Excellence – Defense Against Terrorism: Ankara, Turkey, November 2011.

 

“Types of Terrorist Groups.” NATO Center of Excellence – Defense Against Terrorism: Ankara, Turkey, May 2011.

 

“Terrorists’ Use of Cyber.” NATO Center of Excellence – Defense Against Terrorism: Ankara, Turkey, May 2011.

 

“Strategic Communications to Combat Terrorism.” NATO Center of Excellence – Defense Against Terrorism: Ankara, Turkey, May 2011.

 

“Countering Terrorists’ Communications in Cyberspace.”  NATO Center of Excellence – Defense Against Terrorism: Ankara, Turkey, March 2011.

 

“Deterring Cyber Attacks by Terrorist Groups.” NATO Center of Excellence – Defense Against Terrorism: Ankara, Turkey, March 2011.

 

 “U.S. Air Force Academy Workshop on Cyber Conflict and Terrorism.” Panelist at Advanced research workshop chaired by GEN Kehler, Commander U.S. Strategic Command. Project on Strategic Space Studies III. Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies, U.S. Air Force Academy: Colonial Room, Mayflower Hotel – Washington, D.C., July 2010.

 

 “Terrorist Communications in Cyber Space.” NATO CoE-DAT – Cyber Terrorism: Ankara, Turkey, April 2010.

 

“Countering Terrorists’ Communications in Cyberspace.” NATO CoE-DAT – Defense Against Terrorism. Ankara, Turkey, March 2010.

 

 “The Changing Security Environment – Media and Strategic Communication.”

NATO Defense College: Rome, Italy, March 2010.

 

“Strategic Listening – Winning the War of Ideas.” NATO International Symposium on Global Terrorism and International Cooperation III: Ankara, Turkey, March 2010.

 

 “Cyber Commons, Engagement and Deterrence.” Moderator for the U.S. Office of the Secretary of Defense Highlands Forum:  Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C., February 2010.

 

“Strategic Communications in Combating Terrorism.” NATO Defense College: Rome, Italy, November 2009.

 

“Winning Hearts and Minds – Strategic Listening.” Advanced Research Workshop on Strategic Communications.  NATO Center of Excellence – Defense Against Terrorism: Ankara, Turkey, May 2009.

 

“Infrastructure Protection, Cyber Crime, Non-State Armed Groups and Irregular Warfare:  A View from Brazil.” Challenges in International Cyber Security.

Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University: Fort Lesley J. McNair, Washington, D.C., April 2009.

 

“Understanding the Nexus of Governance, Intrastate Conflict and Non-State Armed Groups: Implications for Peace and Security.” School of International Studies, American University. Washington, D.C., December 2008.

 

“Internet Security.” Panelist at the United Nations Global Creative Leadership Summit -- Louise Blouin Foundation and UN Office of Partnerships: Metropolitan Club, NY, September 2008.

 

“Human Security” Panelist at the United Nations Global Creative Leadership Summit, Louise Blouin Foundation and UN Office of Partnerships, chaired by Antonio Maria Costa, Director of UN Office of Drugs and Crime. Metropolitan Club, NY, September 2008.

 

“Contemporary Irregular Threats to U.S. National Security.” Co-authored White Paper for the U.S. President-Elect at a U.S. National Security Retreat.

U.S. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Highlands Forum: Southampton, NY, August 2008).

 

“Non-State Armed Groups in Cyber-Conflict: Goals, Organization and Relationships.” U.S. Office of the Secretary of Defense Highlands Forum: Aspen Wye River Plantation, MD, April 2008.

 

“Gangs, Criminal Organizations and the State: Lessons from the PCC and the Chinese Triad.” U.S. Office of the Secretary of Defense Highlands Forum. Aspen Wye River Plantation, MD, March 2008.

 

Understanding the Nexus of Governance, Intrastate Conflict and Non-State Armed Groups: Implications for Peace and Security in the 21st Century. Tufts University, Ginn Library, 2008.

 

 “Understanding Low Governance States: A quantitative and qualitative assessment of armed groups, governance and intrastate conflict.” Defense Analysis Department, U.S. Naval Postgraduate School: Monterrey, CA, December 2007/

 

“Patterns of Insurgencies and the Case of Iraq.” Interview for radio and web broadcast by The Christian Science Monitor, May 2005.

 

“Patterns of Insurgencies and the Case of Iraq.” Interview for radio and web broadcast by BBC News “The World Today,” May 2005.

 

“Understanding Low Governance States: A quantitative and qualitative assessment

of armed groups, governance and intrastate conflict.” Jebsen Center for Counter-Terrorism Studies. Medford, MA. Abstracts and methodology on their website 2005-2010.

 

“Internal Conflicts and Wars” seminar instruction, Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Medford, MA: 2003-2007. Co-taught the following segments of this graduate course, which I added to the syllabus in 2003: Criminal Organizations and Armed Groups in Irregular War; Old Wars and New Wars; Twenty-First Century Global Trends; Communications and Information Warfare; Contemporary Followers and Force Composition; Contemporary Outside Support; Contemporary Tactics; Contemporary Militias; Types of Internal Wars; International Criminal Organizations; Sources of Instability – Environmental Change, Migration and Conflict; Resource Dimension and Globalization; State Collapse and/or Failure

 

“Armed Groups: A Tier-One Priority.” Co-authored with Richard Shultz and Douglas Farah. Boulder, Colorado:  Institute for National Security Studies, U.S. Air Force, 2004.